Abstract Among the sub-branches of the livestock industry in Turkey, milk and dairy product sector is one of the most active production areas. It is essential to examine the supply structure of the milk and dairy product sector and reveal the relations between the production amounts of the products to understand the overall structure of the sector. We determined the pattern network structures based on the amount of raw cow milk entering the industry and the production amounts of six products between 2010/01 and 2020/09. In addition, we studied the product-based development of the sector. The findings obtained from the network analysis of the production amounts of milk and dairy products indicated a relationship between the products and their interactions with each other. The amount of raw milk entering the production process was located in the center and displayed a positive relationship with all products it interacted with. The amount of raw cow milk entering the production process and the amount of cow cheese produced affected other products included in the network. In addition, among the products produced, the production amounts of ayran and yogurt exhibited the highest correlation coefficient with a moderate positive correlation value (0.609). The resulting social network graph provides important clues about the general production understanding of Turkey’s dairy sector and consumer preferences in the market.

RESUMO: Os elevados custos da ração entre os custos totais para a produção de leite cru e uma relação leite-ração desfavorável afetam diretamente a lucratividade dos produtores de leite. Para entender como o mercado na Turquia pode ser equilibrado, é essencial explorar os fatores que afetam os preços do leite. Este estudo pretende determinar os efeitos dos indicadores básicos e econômicos sobre o preço do leite cru entre 2010 e 2019, por meio da análise de dados em painel mensal. Como os dados de série temporal são usados, os testes de Dickey-Fuller Aumentado (ADF) e Phillips-Perron (PP) são conduzidos para descobrir se a série é estacionária. Para ver os efeitos individuais, os parâmetros são estimados usando os modelos de efeitos fixos e aleatórios. O teste de Hausman é realizado para decidir qual dos dois modelos é válido. Encontram-se os indicadores básicos do preço do leite.Os preços da cevada, farelo de soja, trigo e grãos secos de destilaria com solúveis (DDGS), e os indicadores econômicos. A taxa de câmbio do dólar e o índice de preços ao produtor agrícola (PPI), ter efeitos significativos (P < 0,05; P < 0,01) no preço do leite. Em conclusão, verifica-se que os preços do leite cru na Turquia são consideravelmente afetados pelos preços dos ingredientes para rações, bem como pelas condições económicas gerais.

ABSTRACT: The high costs of feed among the total costs of raw milk production and an unfavorable milk-feed ratio directly affect the profitability of milk producers. To understand how the market in Turkey can be equilibrated, an exploration of the factors affecting milk prices is essential. This study determined the effects of the basic and the economic indicators on the price of raw milk between 2010 and 2019, by analyzing the monthly panel data. Since time series data are used, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests are conducted to find out whether the series is stationary. In order to see the individual effects, the parameters are estimated using the fixed and random-effects models. The Hausman test is conducted to decide which of the two models is valid. The basic indicators for milk price, namely, prices of barley, soybean meal, wheat and distillers dried grains with soluble (DDGS), and the economic indicators, namely, dollar exchange rate and agricultural producer price index (PPI) had significant (P < 0.05; P < 0.01) effects on the milk price. In conclusion, it is reported that the raw milk prices in Turkey are considerably affected by the prices of feed ingredients as well as the general economic conditions.

Abstract White cheese, kashar cheese, yogurt, and ayran are among the most common products produced by the dairy industry in Turkey. The present study determined the production cost of 1 kg of these packaged products as well as the financial implications on their distribution and the total cost. The study also estimated the cost factors affecting the profitability of the products by identifying the cost differences between production regions and scales, using a mean regression model for each product. The study used the data collected through a survey involving 15 dairy plants of three different sizes located in five different regions and involved in raw milk production. The study found a 2-year average capacity utilization rate of the businesses to be 68.80%. The R2 of the analyzed products using the backward multiple regression model was 0.874 and above (p < 0.001). In conclusion, the regression analysis demonstrated that the major factors affecting profitability were the quantity of raw milk contained in the product, the sale price of the product, and the purchase price of raw milk.